2011 NBA Finals Edition
Hey everyone. Again, I am excited to welcome my good friend Adam Troester as a guest blogger on Shown The Red Card. In April, Adam posted an NBA Playoffs Preview and was eager to predict the NBA Finals matchup between the Heat and Mavericks. So without further delay, here is Adam’s prediction on the Finals.
The rematch of the 2006 NBA Finals is set. The matchup may be the same, but the makeup of the Miami Heat and the Dallas Mavericks is much different than five years ago. There are only two players remaining from both of the teams of the previous match-up. Dallas’s Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry and Miami’s Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem are still with their respective teams. The 2011 Finals are going to be a different beast, but the question still remains, will the result be any different? Let’s take a look at how the two teams got here, what we’ve learned about them so far and who has the advantage going into Tuesday night’s opener.
Going into the 2011 season we knew the Heat would be the biggest storyline of the year. They signed the “Big Three” and threw a championship celebration claiming they would win seven rings. The hype mounted up and Miami did the hardest thing there is to do in sports: they lived up to the billing. Yes, the regular season may have had its ups and downs, but to be honest, that is exactly what the Heat needed. They needed the whole nation to cheer against them. They needed a long losing streak to see how they responded to adversity. They also knew they had 82 games to right the ship, and let’s be real; they could’ve been the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference and still be poised to win the title.
In the post-season, Miami has been dominant. They raced past Philly like everyone knew they would. They went against the former Big Three and dashed everyone’s thoughts that Boston was the best team in the East. Boston traded away Kendrick Perkins in the middle of the season and that is the main reason they didn’t stand a chance against Miami. The Celtics had chemistry, size, speed, shooting and defense, and taking Perk out of that equation made them into an inadequate opponent for the Heat. Going into the Eastern Conference Finals the Bulls had won the season series 3-0 over Miami. But, the regular season is a completely different task than the postseason. The postseason is made up of the same scouting for two weeks straight, where the other team’s defense can focus on how to shut down the stars of your team. That’s exactly what the Heat did to Derrick Rose. They shut him down and left it up to Chicago’s other max contract player who didn’t show up at all. Carlos Boozer talked so much about how the Heat only had two superstars and Chris Bosh kept his mouth shut and took it to the Bulls. If he plays the same way against Dallas there is no way Miami loses the series.
Dallas got to the Finals in a similar, but entirely different way than the Heat. Throughout the entire season, the Mavericks flew under the radar. They caught people’s attention eventually with their long winning streaks and complete team efforts. The whole focus was still never on them. The big story in Miami and LA’s quest for a second three peat of the decade overshadowed what was happening in the Lone Star State. In fact, most people (including myself) thought their record was just a fancy number only to be taken down in the first round of the playoffs. That obviously didn’t happen. What did happen is one of the most dominant runs through the first three rounds of the post season in recent memory. Once Dallas derailed the Lakers (and Phil Jackson’s swan song) there was no doubt they would be representing the Western Conference in the Finals. They took down a young Thunder team that just needs more maturity to be fit for a championship.
The two five game series in the Championship round didn’t provide a lot of drama, but they did give us a chance to build the anticipation for this upcoming matchup. This is going to be an offensive juggernaut of a series and the action should be nonstop from the first tip. Who does this type of series favor and who will eventually be showered with confetti? Will it be a repeat of the 2006 series with Miami taking the crown? Or will Dirk get his revenge and earn his ever so deserved ring? Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Point Guards: The Mavericks have the obvious advantage at Point Guard. Not only do they have a savvy and experienced Jason Kidd as their starter; they also have J.J. Barea stepping in as his backup. Barea comes in for Kidd and averages nine points a game in under 18 minutes. That kind of production plus 3 ½ assists per game gives Dallas confidence when Kidd is on the bench. He can rest his aging body more with great backup help from Barea. Even without the star backup the Mavs would still win the matchup between Kidd and Bibby. Jason Kidd has seen everything there is to see in the pros and his IQ is up there with the best in the game. Mike Bibby came to Miami halfway through the season looking for a ring with the star studded lineup. Miami is just lucky they can count on James and Wade to bring up the ball otherwise this matchup might be too big to make up.
Shooting Guards: This matchup doesn’t even need to be discussed. Dwyane Wade vs. DeShawn Stevenson. What else is there to say? One is a top five player in the league that has been an NBA Finals MVP and the other barely gets noticed in his home arena. This is a huge advantage for the Heat. The defensive matchup is good for Miami too since Wade will be able to leave Stevenson and double Nowitzki to make it harder on him in this series.
Small Forward: Another matchup that doesn’t need much discussing, but at least the Mavericks have an All-Star caliber player to put up against Lebron James. Shawn Marion isn’t anywhere close to Lebron, but let’s be honest, who is? The play of Marion in this series could go a long way in deciding who wins. He has to contribute more than his average of ten points per game, but more importantly he has to make James work for his points. Lebron is too determined and Marion isn’t skilled enough to keep him down.
Power Forwards: This is the most important matchup on the floor. Dirk Nowitzki has been on fire in the 2011 Playoffs and Chris Bosh has carried the Heat at times when Lebron and Wade faded. If Bosh keeps up his offensive performance he had against the Bulls there is no way Dirk and the Mavs hang the banner up in Dallas. With that said, this battle will be won and lost on Dallas’ offensive end. Just like Marion has to make James work for his points, Bosh can’t let Dirk have his way. He has a better size and athletic combination than what the Thunder threw at Nowitzki. That is going to be the difference in this matchup. Bosh is quick enough to stay with guards and has the height to guard centers. Like I said before, Bosh is the most important player in this series and if he comes through the criticism will fade quickly.
Centers: There are no stars on either team at the center position. This is going to be one of those conversations that will be talked about after the series. At some point during the seven games Tyson Chandler or Joel Anthony is going to have a difference making game. That may only be ten points here or there, but whoever wins this matchup could help his team steal a game and maybe the series. I’ll give the advantage to Chandler based on what I’ve seen so far this postseason.
Bench: A lot has been made of the Heat not having much depth, but the resurgence of Udonis Haslem has changed that thinking. His energy coming off the bench will be a huge difference maker in this series. He and Mike Miller make up the difference in the opening minutes of the second and fourth quarters. J.J. Barea was discussed in depth earlier in this discussion, but the addition of Haslem gives this section to the Heat.
Coaches: This series isn’t going to come down to coaching, but I think my pick for who has the advantage will shock you a bit. Eric Spoelstra has kept the Heat going all year. People say anyone can coach this team with their talent. However, when things were going bad he was getting all the criticism. Everyone was saying Pat Riley should come back and coach again. Therefore, when things go good he deserves some of the credit too. He has managed the ego of ”The Heatles” and led them to a championship appearance. Now, he won’t be the difference of the series, but he has done a great job up to this point.
So who wins? Both of these teams have been more than impressive throughout their runs to this point. I had the Heat winning the title before the season and before the beginning of the post season so I can’t change my mind now. Even if I could I wouldn’t. The one problem Miami had during the regular season hasn’t been an issue the past month. When they need a big shot Lebron has taken the game over and delivered more than one victory in clutch moments. When he has been double teamed Wade has knocked down the shots. Also, ever since Bosh complained about not getting the ball in his comfort zone he has been a machine. This postseason LeBron has led the team in scoring seven times, Wade five times and Bosh three times. Do you think they are worried who scores more? I don’t. If they are playing defense the way they have been, sharing the ball as well as they have been and knock down the clutch shots I just don’t see any way the Mavericks can hang with them… unless Dirk averages 35. That is why I have to stay with the Heat. Dirk remains one of the best players to never win a championship as Miami wins in six games.
Schedule (All times are Central. All games on ABC)
Game 1: Tuesday, May 31st: Dallas @ Miami, 8 PM
Game 2: Thursday, June 2nd: Dallas @ Miami, 8 PM
Game 3: Sunday, June 5th: Miami @ Dallas, 7 PM
Game 4: Tuesday, June 7th: Miami @ Dallas, 8 PM
Game 5: Thursday, June 9th: Miami @ Dallas, 8 PM**
Game 6: Sunday, June 12th: Dallas @ Miami, 7 PM**
Game 7: Tuesday, June 14th: Dallas @ Miami, 8 PM**
**If Necessary
A side note to the blog: Does anyone else think it’s funny that the NHL Conferene Champions will not come close to touching their trophy unless it’s the Stanley Cup, but all the other major sports leagues act like they’ve won the title already? If you won a conference championship (in any sport) what would you do? Would you throw a party after winning the conference championship or wait for the World Title?
Dirk has got to pick up his defensive rebounding in this series. He doesn’t necessarily need to play ‘great d’, just not allow second chance points.
I agree Eric. Dirk will NEVER be a great defender….he is too offensive minded for that to ever happen. But what he needs to do is play average defense and contend on rebounds. For a 7 footer, he plays weak under the rim.
Dallas’ bench really needs to step up if they don’t want to make this series last longer than 4 or 5 games. I thought they had probably if not THE best, one of the best benches in the playoffs, but they were severely outdone by Miami’s bench last night. Dirk also needs to step up like Eric said.
I still stand by my Miami in 5 prediction though, these guys are just too good and play way too intense of D
Oops – first sentence should read they need to step up if they WANT to make it last longer than 4 or 5 games
I agree Dirk is not even an average defender, and being 7′ he should be able to grab some rebounds to limit the amount of offensive rebounds that the heat compiled in game 1. It’s funny how every time the Heat are questioned in their rebounding they always come up big. Ever since they were dominated in game 1 by the Bulls they have not taken rebounding lightly (even costing Mike Miller another shoulder injury last night).
I think it’s interesting the idea of LeBron being the defensive stopper, his role in the first game being that of shutting down what drove the Mavs all season aka key 3 point shooting. I think when Dirk does step up and starting getting in the mid 30′s (pointwise) we will see Coach Spo put LeBron on Dirk to try and limit him offensively. This series will be interesting, the 2 – 3 – 2 format sucks, because it’s almost impossible to win 3 straight games anywhere. My prediction Heat in 6.
Keep up the good work Verlaney and Troester.
John: I couldnt agree more. The Mavs had to win game 1 in my opinion. Miami didnt play that well, to be blunt. The Heat’s bench should have been way out-played by the Mavs bench. I doubt Haslem/Miller/Chalmers will play that bad the rest of the series. Jason Terry was totally MIA. I agree with Heat in 6 as well.
Josh: The Heat have almost always responded to negative media attention this season. When they want to rebound, nobody will stop them. The problem I have with their rebounding is that there are a lot of loose ball fouls committed due to tip backs and things like this. They need to start corraling the ball a little better.
I agree that the 2-3-2 format is garbage. I have no idea why the NBA does this. Every other series is 2-2-1-1-1, which makes it fair. No team can really build home court advantage in that format. 2-3-2 allows the team with the worse record from the regular season to possibly win 3 straight at home with momentum. Its not good.
I think looking at benches is a little overrated especially in the playoffs. Everyone knows if it came down to it the Heat would just have the Big Three average 40 minutes plus per game and JJ Barea would mean nothing. Also, Jason Terry coming off the bench doesn’t do much for me when their starting shooting guard isn’t as good as he is. He basically is the starter in my mind.
Put the bench thing aside and it really comes down to the will of each team. Before the Heat put this team together we all thought it was going to be an offensive power, which it can be. However, we didn’t see them as willing to do the dirty work on defense. If they keep doing this Lebron’s prediction of seven rings may be possible. The Knicks may add Chris Paul to make their Big Three, but Melo and Amare will never buckle down to play defense for more than three minutes a game.
Finally, on the 2-3-2 format, I really think it gives the road team a disadvantage. It is hard to beat any great team three times in a row even on your home court. It has only happened twice in the Finals (one being when these teams played last time). If Dallas doesn’t win two on the road there is no way for them to win the title because they can’t beat the Heat three straight games. Not going to happen. Heat in six still after seeing game one.
Never touch the conference championship trophy. Its not the ultimate goal. The only trophy I’m going to celebrate winning is the final Championship trophy. Nobody remembers the runner ups. Also, some hockey teams will touch the conference championship. More often though, they won’t.