2011 Fantasy Football Edition
Hello fellow sports nerds. The time has come to take a look at this years pool of fantasy football talent. Whether you have already drafted (I have in 3 out of my 4 leagues) or are just a beginner, this should help you evaluate the players that will eventually make your team win the various obscene trophies that your league has created (see above). Also- if you havent watched The League on FX the past 2 seasons- go to Netflix right now and rent them- they are fantastic!
First, I am going to rank the Top 10 of each of the major positions, then list sleeper picks, and finally round out with players to stay away from. Note: these are my predictions for the upcoming season based on last years statistics, off-season acquisitions to the players respective teams, how much value they will bring your team, and a lot of times, gut feelings. While drafting a league-winning team is in some ways scientific, maintaining that teams productivity, in my eyes, comes down to a lot of luck. With that- here we go.
A.P. is never a reach.
Running Back
- Adrian Peterson, Vikings. He’s A.P. which means until someone runs harder than he does, #1 is where he belongs.
- Ray Rice, Ravens. If Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron can get him the ball more often than last year, he will bring huge value.
- Jammal Charles, Chiefs. The Chiefs offense is mainly run-based, so Charles should get plenty of touches to go with his game-breaking speed.
- Rashad Mendenhall, Steelers. This is a gut-pick, but I think the Steelers will run the ball more this year to stop the turnovers that happened last year. Mendenhall could score quite a bit.
- LeSean McCoy, Eagles. The best thing about McCoy is that he is a pass-catching threat in a pass-heavy Eagles offense, so he brings versatility and red-zone options.
- Steven Jackson, Rams. Another gut-pick, but I see Jackson returning to his normal dominant self with the explosive Rams offense this year.
- Frank Gore, 49ers. With his brand-new contract, Gore should be ready to pound the rock early and often for an anemic 49ers offense.
- Chris Johnson, Titans. CJ2K is this low because he has not been in training camp due to contract issues, and from the looks of it, is ready to sit out games until he gets paid. If he is on the field, then he is the top playmaker in the league.
- Darren McFadden, Raiders. I see Run-DMc having a huge year with a more balanced Raiders offense. The key will be if he can remain healthy.
- Arian Foster, Texans. Foster, when healthy, is a Top-5 back in the league. When he isnt, he becomes a huge risk. Health concerns over the off-season have dropped him this far for me, but he will remain a huge value when he returns from injury.
Quarterback
- Phillip Rivers, Chargers. As a Broncos fan, I loathe Rivers. As a fantasy owner of his last season, I loved him. The man is almost guaranteed to throw for 4,300 yards this year, if not more. Plus, he has a healthy, happy Vincent Jackson as a deep threat all season unlike last year.
- Tom Brady, Patriots. This is a no-brainer. Brady is almost as safe as Rivers when it comes to yards and TD’s.
- Aaron Rodgers, Packers. Rodgers projects as the #1 QB in a lot of leagues, but I think he is still mistake-prone from time-to-time. Still, he is an incredibly viable pick.
- Drew Brees, Saints. Brees will need to improve his play from last year if he wants to remain an elite quarterback in the NFL. I look for him to not make as many risky throws as he did last year and get the ball into the end zone more.
- Michael Vick, Eagles. Dual-threat, dual-risk. If someone in your league takes Vick #1 overall, slap them. There is no doubt that Vick was extraordinary last year, but temper your expectations for this season. There is a lot of pressure on the now $100 million man.
- Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. Ben is the rock of the Steelers offense. Sure, he makes a lot of errors, but he more than makes up for them in great throws and TD’s. Look for a more balanced Steelers offense to help Ben settle into a groove this year.
- Peyton Manning, Colts. IF he is 90-100%, this is a steal.
- Matt Ryan, Falcons. Ryan was Mr. Consistent last season when he lead the Falcons to the playoffs through the tough NFC South. Now he looks to improve on what was an excellent 2010 campaign. Look for more deep throws and the same low-number of INT’s.
- Matt Schaub, Texans. Shaub, to me, is a fantasy enigma. When he is on, he could be a Top-5 QB in the NFL. When he isnt, INT’s and bad decisions galore. He better pray that Arian Foster gets healthy and that Andre Johnson stays healthy or it could be a long year.
- Tony Romo, Cowboys. Remember him? Romo is back and has looked really sharp in preseason, although that means relatively little. If you get him in the 4th-5th round he could be a steal.
Wide Receiver
- Andre Johnson, Texans. Plain and simple- he is the best receiver in the NFL.
- Roddy White, Falcons. Roddy White was exemplary last season for the Falcons. Matt Ryan found him early and often for TD’s and long completions. Even though the Falcons drafted Julio Jones, White is still a premier option.
- Calvin Johnson, Lions. When healthy, he is the most physical specimen in the NFL. If Matt Stafford can stay healthy, look for Johnson’s numbers to explode.
- Vincent Jackson, Chargers. I was tempted to make him #1 overall because that is how big of a season he could have with Phillip Rivers slinging the rock.
- Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals. Once considered the best receiver in the league, Fitzgerald clearly missed Kurt Warner last season. With new QB Kevin Kolb, Fitzgerald should flourish.
- Greg Jennings, Packers. He is Aaron Rodgers preferred receiver, so that should be enough for anyone to draft him.
- Hakeem Nicks, Giants. Look for Eli Manning to get Nicks the ball a lot this season on first down. The Giants should be a more balanced offense which will help Nicks to not be double-covered all year.
- DeSean Jackson, Eagles. Even with his looming contract issues, I still expect a huge year from Jackson in the Eagles offense. He is the biggest deep-threat in the game today.
- Mike Wallace, Steelers. Right behind Jackson in the deep-threat category for me. He may not get as many yards as he did last year, but he should have plenty of touchdowns at the end of the year.
- Reggie Wayne, Colts. I would normally have him higher in these rankings, but with Peyton Manning injured, he could struggle at the beginning of the year.
Tight End
- Jason Witten, Cowboys. He is, and will remain Tony Romo’s favorite target. Enough said.
- Dallas Clark, Colts. When Peyton gets healthy, Clark will explode after an injury riddled 2010 season.
- Antonio Gates, Chargers. He is #1 in everyones rankings, but I cannot get past his last 2 seasons of health issues. Best TE in the league when healthy.
- Jermichael Finley, Packers. Finley could end up #1 on this list at the end of the year, that is how high I am on his potential right now. Injuries are also a concern with him though.
- Owen Daniels, Texans. Daniels could have the biggest year of any TE on the board if he can comeback from a bad 2010. Shaub will find him often when teams double-team Andre Johnson.
- Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars. With the struggling Jags offense, Lewis may be the biggest weapon behind Maurice Jones Drew.
- Vernon Davis, 49ers. The most physical specimen of the group, but he needs consistent touches to be an elite TE.
- Kellen Winslow, Bucanneers. Winslow has made an outstanding career comeback with Josh Freeman and the young Bucs offense. Look for more touches from him this season.
- Zach Miller, Seahawks. Maybe the most underrated TE on the board. If the Seahawks can get him the ball in space, he could be a steal in the late rounds of a draft.
- Jimmy Graham, Saints. He has the biggest upside of any player in this draft in my eyes. Graham is an athletic freak out of the Antonio Gates mold, and should become a dynamic weapon for the Saints offense.
The Steel Curtain is #1 until someone knocks them out....I mean off.
Defense/Special Teams
- Steelers. They are the most consistently excellent group in the league.
- Packers. Right behind the Steel Curtain in terms of consistency, although losing Cullen Jenkins and playing in a tough NFC North will hurt them a little more.
- Ravens. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are healthy. Uh oh.
- Eagles. Adding Cullen Jenkins, Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha to an already lethal defense means bad things for NFC East foes.
- Jets. The Jets have lost some pieces on defense, but that doesnt mean Rex Ryan still wont have an elite squad.
- Bears. Brian Urlacher and Co. need more consistency to end up at #6 at the end of the year. Look for Julius Peppers to again play out of his mind.
- Falcons. This is a sneaky good defense. Also, look for the newly contracted John Abraham to put together a solid season at defensive end yet again.
- Chargers. This unit was the #1 overall defense in 2010. While I dont think they will finish at the top this year, they are still a great pick up in rounds 9-12.
- Patriots. This unit truly plays as a unit, not a collection of individuals. Bill Belichick is the best defensive mind in the game and will have this unit playing good football again this year.
- Saints. After a sloppy 2010, including a horrendous playoff performance in Seattle, this unit needs to step up to make the top 10 again this year. I think they have the talent to do so.
Fan favorite, Alex Henery.
Kickers (no explanation needed- they should always be your last pick in any fantasy draft.)
- Nate Kaeding, Chargers.
- Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots.
- Mason Crosby, Packers.
- Neil Rackers, Texans.
- Garrett Hartley, Saints.
- Rob Bironas, Titans.
- Josh Brown, Rams.
- Alex Henery, Eagles.
- Nick Folk, Jets.
- Adam Vinatieri, Colts.
My #1 sleeper, Jacoby Ford.
Sleeper/Value picks
- Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys. Look for the Cowboys to be more balanced than in years past under new head coach Jason Garrett. Jones will be the biggest benefactor of his new regime.
- Fred Jackson, RB, Bills. While everyone is looking for C.J. Spiller to ignite the Bills offense, Jackson has been the Bills most consistent contributor over the past 3 years. Look for him to get plenty of touches to be a value.
- LeGarrette Blount, RB, Buccaneers. Anyone who has watched a Bucs preseason game knows how beastly Blount can be. Expect lots of goal line touches for him in 2011.
- Tim Hightower, RB, Redskins. Hightower could be THE steal in any draft if he runs behind the Redskins zone-blocking scheme like he has in preseason.
- James Starks, RB, Packers. If and when Ryan Grant gets hurt, Starks will be THE man in the Packers backfield.
- Ben Tate, RB, Texans. Until Arian Foster is declared healthy, I would pick Tate up in late rounds as he will see a majority of the touches in the Texans backfield.
- Matt Stafford, QB, Lions. IF, and thats a BIG IF, he can stay healthy, Stafford could easily lead a Lions Playoffs charge this season. He is that good.
- Sam Bradford, QB, Rams. Bradford may not be a “sleeper” but he will be a great value pick once all of the “Elite” QB’s are off the board. He could have a HUGE year.
- Jason Campbell, QB, Raiders. He had a really successful campaign for being the Raiders QB last season. He has Darren McFadden and a host of speedy receivers to throw too as well. Look for him to be a big-time sleeper.
- Matt Hasslebeck, QB, Titans. The Titans struck gold with this acquisition in my humble opinion. If Chris Johnson comes back soon, Hasslebeck could put up decent numbers as your back-up QB.
- Jacoby Ford, WR, Raiders. My favorite sleeper of 2011. Ford has lightening speed, is fantastic on screens and also gets touches in the backfield. Look for him to emerge as the Raiders #1 target at WR this year.
- Plaxico Burress, WR, Jets. Plain and simple, I think Burress will bring a big body and plenty of stability to Mark Sanchez and the Jets offense. He will make Sanchez a Top-10 QB by seasons end.
- Braylon Edwards, WR, 49ers. An old Jets target now has become the #1 WR for Alex Smith and the 49ers offense. Look for Edwards to have plenty of targets and for him to have a chip on his shoulder after leaving the Jets.
- Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Rams. He could end up being Sam Bradfords biggest deep threat in 2011 which is more than enough reason to pick him up in later rounds.
- Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints. He is a sleeper, but not for long.
- Brent Celek, TE, Eagles. With every defense focused on the Eagles deep-threats at WR, Celek could become Mike Vick’s best friend and safety valve this year.
- Kevin Boss, TE, Raiders. This former Giant replaces Zach Miller in the Jason Campbell-led Raiders attack. Campbell loves his TE’s, so Boss should get a lot of targets.
- Visante Shiancoe, TE, Vikings. Shiancoe had a rough 2010, but Donovan McNabb may help him return to his Pro-Bowl 2009 form.
- Dallas DEF. Plain and simple, they cant be as bad as last year.
- Lions DEF. Look for 2010 Rookie of the Year, Ndamuong Suh, and Co. to bring the heat on opponents this year.
- Redskins DEF. The Redskins are way underrated in my eyes. With DeAngelo Hall at corner and Brian Orakpo rushing the passer- they could be a mid-level defense.
Sorry Bears fans....
Fantasy Busts/Over Valued
- Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs. Frankly, I think he will come down from his 2010 form and not be as effective in a one-dimensional Chiefs offense.
- Matt Forte, RB, Bears. Forte doesnt do it for me. He is average as a rusher, and last year saw his receiving attempts drop as well. Factor in that the Bears brought in Marion Barber for short-yardage downs and Forte loses value quickly.
- Jeremy Maclin, Eagles. His health and attitude came into question last year, and I dont see him coming out of that funk in 2011.
- Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons. While he is unequivocally a First-Ballot Hall-of-Famer, Gonzalez isnt getting younger. His stats dropped last season and now that Matt Ryan has better receivers, I see TG’s stats taking another hit this year.
- Chiefs DEF. This unit could be good, but I have a feeling that their secondary is too young still and will get burned. I think they are over-valued in most leagues.
Thanks for reading.
I hear picking a QB in the first round is the way to go. Can anyone else confirm this?
Looking forward to cleaning up our fantasy football league this year
Haha- right there with you John.
I’m pretty sure I disagree with you on just about every thing you said except for the lions d being a sleeper. Keep up the the good work. Give me a call sometime if you’re still in o town. Also the twins are having a career fair on the 12th, might be worth checking out http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/careers/opportunities