NFL Playoffs Preview

Posted by Nick Verlaney on Jan 5, 2012 in NFL | 1 comment

NFL Season Wrap Up/Playoff Preview: by Adam Troester

The final game of the 256 game NFL season wrapped up late Sunday night with the New York Giants taking down their archrival Dallas Cowboys to earn the last of 12 playoff spots.  The four month regular season is in the books, but what exactly did we learn that we didn’t already know?  What surprises did we see both good and bad?  Most importantly, who positioned themselves the best to make a run at claiming Super Bowl XLVI?

Biggest Surprise (Good):

Before this season began, there is no way anyone predicted that the Bengals, Broncos, Lions and 49ers would all be in the playoffs.  That in itself is a great surprise for the NFL.  It is clear that parity is part of every NFL season, but these traditional franchises pushing their way to the playoffs can only benefit the league even more.  With that said, there can only be one biggest surprise and that goes to the 49ers.  Before the season, they hired a first time NFL head coach in a season proceeded by a lockout.  It is hard to get a team prepared for any season, but having mere weeks to get a new system in place, as well as, a new culture makes this season one to remember for San Francisco.  There were talks of them throwing the season away to get Harbaugh’s old quarterback Andrew Luck with the first pick of the upcoming draft.  Instead, they run away with the West with a 13-3 record while securing a first round bye.  That along with one of the best defenses in the league gives them a decent chance to win their first playoff game since 2002.

Biggest Surprise (Bad):

While there are always surprise teams that make the playoffs, the same can be said with some of the teams that fell short of the postseason.  The teams that fall in this category for the 2011 season are the Eagles, Jets and the Chargers.  While the Colts 2-14 record was by some shocking, you have to give them a pass for not having their all-time great quarterback in Peyton Manning.  Out of the three mentioned teams, the biggest surprise to not make the playoffs has to be the San Diego Chargers.  The NFC and AFC East divisions are very strong.  The AFC East obviously has the New England Patriots to get past, so it’s not all too surprising the Jets didn’t win the division.  The Eagles had a lot of additions with little time to get used to each other before the season began.  They clicked in the last quarter of the season and will be the team to beat in the NFC East next year.  The San Diego Chargers play in a division where no one finished over 8-8.  Going into the season, they were the heavy favorites to take the West.  They were 4-1 through five games.  It took them six weeks to get over Rivers’ botched snap that cost them the Kansas City game.  With the talent that they have an 8-8 record in the 2011 AFC West is inexcusable.

Coach of the Year:

Jim Harbaugh of the San Francisco 49ers is the “no brainer” Coach of the Year.  Not only did he take the 49ers’ decade long streak of missing the playoffs, he did it on the back end of a lockout.  In Andrew Smith’s first seven years he has had seven different offensive coordinators.  He may have finally got the keys to the right car in this new West Coast product.  A probable date with the New Orleans Saints in the Divisional Round will show us just how far they have come.

Rookie of the Year:

There really are only four people to consider for this award.  While Julio Jones seems to be a go-to player for years to come for the Falcons, the fact still remains that A.J. Green had a better season against tougher defenses, so that eliminates Jones.  A.J. Green, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton and Patrick Peterson would be the four I would consider.  While Peterson is definitely the Defensive and Special Teams Rookie of the year, he falls short of comparing to the other three.  AJ Green’s 1,057 receiving yards to go along with 7 touchdowns is very respectable, but there is nothing like being a rookie quarterback in the NFL.  That’s why this award comes down to two.  Andy Dalton and Cam Newton both had years that no one expected.  While Dalton did lead the Bengals to the playoffs the Rookie of the Year still goes to Cam Newton.  Newton put together one of the best rookie seasons of all time.  He broke Peyton Manning’s rookie passing record with 4,051 yards (312 more yards than Manning).  He also set the record for rushing yards by a rookie QB with 706 yards (154 more than second best).  He set the NFL record for most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in any season.  He accounted for 4,757 yards and 35 touchdowns.  He lived up to the expectations of being the #1 overall pick. In 2010, the Panthers scored 16 touchdowns—16! In 2011, after picking up Newton, they scored 48 touchdowns.   They increased the points scored from 196 to 406 points scored.  The Bengals went from 322 points in 2010 to 344 in 2011.  All of that makes him the Rookie of the Year.  The future looks very bright in Carolina.  An additional weapon in Justin Blackmon could be what this team needs to make a run in years to come.

Defensive Player of the Year:

Jared Allen had a monster season for the lowly Minnesota Vikings.  He lived up to his first half statistics and almost broke the all-time record of 22.5 sacks held by Michael Strahan.  Allen finished ½ a sack short at 22 for the year.  He also had an interception, forced four fumbles and recovered four fumbles.  That makes him a dominant force.  To do all that on the defense the Vikings had makes it even that much more impressive.  Charles Woodson made a great push for the honor once again with seven interceptions, two sacks and his overall presence in the Packers’ secondary, but no one even comes close to Jared Allen’s performance.  He has 105 career sacks which puts him within striking distance of the 160 sacks for 3rd overall by the time he is done playing the game.

Most Valuable Player:

This will be the most competitive MVP race since Barry Sanders and Brett Favre shared the 1997 honor.  How can you determine who has been the best player when two players surpassed the mark for passing yards in a season. Another threw 45 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions in 15 games and set the record for best passer rating in a season.  Another led his team to nine consecutive seasons with 10 wins or more to see them win only TWO in his absence this season.  We can eliminate Peyton Manning based on the fact that it is the Most Valuable Player and he didn’t play a single snap.  That doesn’t change the fact that this might be the most important season for his legacy.  If the Colts bounce back next season and make the playoffs, there will be no doubt how important Manning is to this franchise and the league.  He is one of the best quarterbacks to play the game and now he adds a coaching dimension that was seen throughout this season.  With that said, will the Colts take Andrew Luck with the #1 overall pick?  I still would.

This award really comes down to three outstanding quarterbacks.  Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady all had seasons they will never forget.  They compiled 15,354 combined passing yards.  They had 130 touchdowns while throwing only 32 INT’s.  They all had passer ratings of 105+.  Most importantly, they all led their teams to 13 or more wins to win their respective divisions.  If there was ever a year to have multiple winners 2011 would be the year.  However, the award must go to someone.  Aaron Rodgers’ season just can’t be overlooked.  He had 45 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions in 15 games.  If he had started instead of Matt Flynn in the final game and accumulated his average stats from the first 15 games his line would’ve been:  4,953 yards, 48 TD, 6 INT, 122.5 rating.  Some quarterbacks have great seasons in one or two categories. He had all-time numbers in the most important stats, including a 14-1 record.  Brees and Brady did manage more passing yards per game, but Rodgers averaged more yards per attempt and half the number of interceptions as the other two quarterbacks.  If he had as many passing attempts as Brees, he was on pace for 6,077 yards.  In any other season, Brees and Brady would have run away with the award. But, my NFL MVP is Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers.  We all know what these three men want is another Super Bowl ring and I have no doubt these will be the three biggest players in the postseason.

Play of the Year:

Jerome Simpson’s touchdown reception against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16 is hands down the best play of the year.  If this would’ve happened in an exhibition game it would’ve been unreal.  The fact that it came in a must win game for the Bengals makes it that much better: LEAP

Playoff Predictions:

AFC Wildcard Round:

 #6 Cincinnati Bengals at #3 Houston Texans:  Everyone knows the Texans really aren’t the third best team in the AFC.  They are down to their third string quarterback and their most explosive players on both sides of the ball are hurt.  Although Andre Johnson is likely to play with his two sore hamstrings, they still don’t have Mario Williams to threaten Andy Dalton.  The Texans won the last meeting by one in Cincy, but that game gave the Bengals some insight on how to beat Houston.  Pick: Bengals 24-Texans 17

#5 Pittsburgh Steelers at #4 Denver Broncos:  The annual “this game should be played at the other stadium” game (ie: see 2010 Saints at Seahawks).  This is an interesting matchup.  The Broncos backed their way into the playoffs losing their last three games.  The Steelers are banged up with Ben Roethlisberger having a nagging ankle sprain and losing Rashard Mendenhall for the season in Week 17.  If the Steelers defense shows up these two injuries shouldn’t make much of a difference.  The Broncos are playing with nothing to lose which is dangerous, but I don’t see the upset.  Pick: Steelers 27 -Broncos 13

NFC Wildcard Round:

#6 Detroit Lions at #3 New Orleans Saints:  Is any team more prepared for the playoffs than the Saints?  They have won eight games in a row and haven’t lost at home the whole season.  Throw in the fact that they beat the Lions by two touchdowns in December and it seems this one is an easy pick.  Lions DT Ndamukong Suh was serving the first game of his two game suspension during the December 4^th.  Matthew Stafford just threw for over 500 yards and 5 touchdowns at Green Bay.  Throw those facts in and it becomes a little blurry.  With all of that said, the Saints are likely to win this in a shootout.  Pick Saints 38- Lions 27

#5 Atlanta Falcons at #4 New York Giants:  The NFC East as a whole was pretty disappointing this year.  The Falcons only lost 2 games against non divisional winners, while the Giants lost 4.  New York only has one win against teams with a winning record.  After last Sunday’s 42 points in one half Atlanta is hitting its stride at the perfect time.  I don’t see the Giants coming through in this one despite the season Eli Manning is having.  Pick Falcons 24- Giants 23

AFC Divisional Round

#6 Cincinnati Bengals at #1 New England Patriots:  This has been a great season for the rebuilt Bengals.  They won the games they needed to to make the playoffs.  However, they were 9-0 against non-playoff teams and 0-7 against playoff teams.  Combine that with the fact that the Patriots are at home and looking for their first playoff win in four years and you have a deadly combination for Cincy.  Their feel good story ends in the second week of January.  Pick Patriots 34- Bengals 20

#5 Pittsburgh Steelers at #2 Baltimore Ravens:  The Ravens said at the beginning of the year that their main hurdle to get over is the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They have managed to do that so far this season, sweeping the season series with the Steelers.  They are also one of three teams in the league to run the table in their eight home games.  One of the toughest things to do in sports is beat the same team three times in one season.  With the injuries to the Steelers and the defense of the Ravens, I see that exact scenario playing out. Pick Ravens 27- Steelers 17

NFC Divisional Round

#3 New Orleans Saints at #2 San Francisco 49ers:  San Francisco has neither hosted nor played in a postseason game since the 2002 season.  Their fans will be jacked for this matchup between one of the highest octane offense in the Saints.  Something will have to give as San Francisco is giving up just over 14 points per game and New Orleans is scoring over 34 points a game.  Seeing as how the 49er defense is better at stopping the run than the pass, I like the Saints to make it back to the NFC Championship game.  Pick Saints 37 -49ers 24

#5 Atlanta Falcons at #1 Green Bay Packers: After the second half of the season took a toll on the Green Bay Packers health, they should be full strength heading into the playoffs.  The highest scoring offense will have all of its weapons back, which is scary for any opposition.  The Week 5 matchup between these two can’t be forgotten.  The Falcons got out to a fast 14-0 start over the Packers in Atlanta.  Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay to 25 unanswered points and an 11 point win.  This game, obviously at Lambeau, favors the Pack even more.  Pick Packers 38- Falcons 31

AFC Championship

#2 Baltimore Ravens at #1 New England Patriots:  This is a battle between two teams that couldn’t be built further apart.  The New England Patriots have a top 3 offense in the league with a horrid defense.  The Ravens have a top three defense with only one real weapon on offense in Ray Rice.  The question is, which of these attacks will win in the post season.  With a chance to go to the Super Bowl on the line you better believe Tom Brady will deliver.  Even if the Ravens shut down the Patriots, that means they still score 24 points.  This ones goes to the three time Super Bowl Champs.  Pick Patriots 31- Ravens 20

NFC Championship

#3 New Orleans Saints at #1 Green Bay Packers:  Can anyone remember ever having a better offensive matchup in a playoff game?  This is an offensive coordinator’s dream and a defensive coordinator’s nightmare.  These two offensives combined for 1,107 points.  Their defenses rank 30^th and 32^nd in stopping the pass.  The only thing that will stop an all-time shootout is a Green Bay blizzard.  It may come down to whoever has the ball last.  Whoever wins this toss up game faces another high powered offense in Super Bowl XLVI in the New England Patriots.  When in doubt, go with the home team who happens to be the defending Super Bowl Champion.  Pick Packers 38- Saints 34

Super Bowl XLVI

Green Bay Packers v New England Patriots:  The team of the 2000s vs the probable team of the 2010′s.  This is a matchup for the ages and could rival the 53.6 million viewers who watched the Saints beat the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV and happens to be the most viewed event in the history of TV.  Two storied franchises with two great fan bases would make this an event the NFL would clamor over.  The buildup would be unmatched.  The comparisons of Brady v Rodgers v the other all-time quarterbacks would be talked about nonstop for two weeks.  On top of that you have a team looking to become the first repeat champion since the Patriots did it in 2004/2005 playing the team that still wants to be the last team to win back-to-back Super Bowls.  The traditionalists who want to see solid, hard hitting defense may be opposed to this matchup, but really who outside them doesn’t want to see this?  The Super Bowl should come down to two teams of this caliber.  I see this game yet again coming down to the wire with a turnover here or missed field goal there deciding it.  Aaron Rodgers becomes a back-to-back Super Bowl MVP cementing his legacy in Green Bay and NFL history.  Pick Packers 41- Patriots 37

 All of these predictions may be shot down by the second week of the playoffs, but that’s why they play the games.  If you agree or disagree, it doesn’t matter.  What matters is when there is a world title on the line, and at the end of it all, it only matters who shows up at the right time.  Over half way to Super Bowl LXXXVIII (88, can’t wait to see the logo for that one).  As always, thanks for reading.  Good luck to your teams and don’t do anything to deserve a RED CARD.